SAYLOR The result you are building
Finished Result:
A wallet-signal record that preserves chain event evidence, qualifies identity and control claims, classifies transfer versus trade versus contract action, normalizes size against liquidity and wallet history, and backtests whether the signal has after-cost predictive value.
Use this guide when
- A bot, feed, or influencer flags a whale buy/sell or smart-money wallet.
- You want alerts on domain holders or wallets above a value threshold.
- You need to separate operational movement from market intent.
Do not use it as a substitute for
- Copying a wallet solely because past visible trades look profitable.
- Treating an exchange deposit, bridge, router, contract, or market-maker wallet as a directional trade.
Before you change anything
Collect these items first. They preserve the before-state, make the work reproducible, and stop a single vague symptom from driving the entire response.
- Chain/network, address, label source, ownership/control confidence, and observation time.
- Transaction/subevent, status/finality, counterparties, asset contracts/mints, raw amounts, fees, route, and price.
- Wallet balance/history, funding, related wallets, contract interactions, and transfer/trade classification.
- Pool depth, size relative to liquidity/volume, slippage, detection-to-fill delay, and executable exit.
- Point-in-time signal universe, all signals, costs, failures, outcomes, false positives, and holdout tests.
Stop Before Proceeding:
Stop identity or intent claims that depend on an unverified label. Do not copy a transaction until the exact asset, market, executable route, maximum loss, and stale-signal risk meet your independent policy.
Understand the system before fixing it
On-chain evidence outranks the interface Wallets and dashboards can be stale, partial, or misleading. Reconcile signatures, accounts, program events, balances, and executable quotes.
Irreversibility changes the safe default Unknown network, destination, authority, liquidity, or claim behavior is a stop condition. Use low-value tests and explicit maximum loss.
Large transfer is not automatically a trade Funding, custody, bridge, staking, collateral, internal treasury, token distribution, and contract routing can move large value without directional market intent.
Visible winners create survivorship bias A 'smart wallet' may be selected after success, hide losses across addresses, receive allocations, front-run followers, or trade at prices followers cannot obtain.
Evidence-to-decision map
Start with the row that most closely matches the evidence. The first test isolates a layer; it is not permission to
make every available change.
Evidence Likely layer First decisive check What the result means
Whale 'buy' has no Classification Trace instructions/calls, Transfer, mint, claim, OTC, or router movement was mislabeled.
pool swap balance deltas, and
counterparties
Wallet profitable only Selection bias Reconstruct all trades and Public feed omits failures, rugs, costs, or related wallets.
on selected tokens open inventory point in time
Followers fill much Latency/capaci Replay detection-to-inclusion Signal edge disappears after observation and crowding.
worse ty quote and impact
Exchange wallet Attribution Check known service patterns Address activity aggregates customers, not one decision-maker.
labeled as whale and many-user flows
Large buy followed Exit/strategy Track full position lifecycle and One event does not reveal hedge, distribution, or intent.
by transfer out destinationStep-by-step procedure
Work in order and retain the output from each step. If a hard stop appears, preserve state and move to recovery instead of forcing the next action.
01 Verify chain event and asset Why: A precise boundary prevents a plausible fix from solving the wrong problem.
Do: Confirm network, address, transaction status/finality, exact subevent, contracts/mints, raw balance deltas, fees, route, and block/slot time from authoritative sources.
Read the result: The action can be reproduced without relying on a feed label.
Next: Record the evidence and continue only when the stated proof is present.
02 Classify the economic action Why: Symptoms are not enough; a baseline preserves the evidence needed to isolate the failing layer.
Do: Separate transfer, swap, mint/burn, liquidity, bridge, staking, collateral, claim, distribution, OTC-like movement, contract deposit, and exchange custody. Preserve uncertainty.
Read the result: Signal names the observable action rather than guessed intent.
Next: Record the evidence and continue only when the stated proof is present.
03 Evaluate identity and wallet relationships Why: Inconsistent inputs create false differences and make later comparisons unreliable.
Do: Record label source, proof, time, exchange/contract/service patterns, funder, linked addresses, and control confidence. Avoid deanonymizing unsupported individuals.
Read the result: Attribution is qualified and not used as sole trade authorization.
Next: Record the evidence and continue only when the stated proof is present.
04 Normalize materiality Why: A decisive test reduces trial-and-error and limits unnecessary change.
Do: Compare amount to wallet equity/history, token supply, active liquidity, executable depth, volume, pool share, and typical flow. Use current time-stamped data.
Read the result: A 'large' event is large in relevant market context.
Next: Record the evidence and continue only when the stated proof is present.
Procedure continued 05 Model follower execution Why: The smallest reversible correction lowers the blast radius while preserving a recovery path.
Do: Measure detection lag, confirmation, quote, submission, inclusion, price impact, fees, priority, failure, and exit. Include crowding and stale event risk.
Read the result: Expected edge is calculated at follower-obtainable prices.
Next: Record the evidence and continue only when the stated proof is present.
06 Backtest without cherry-picking Why: The happy path cannot expose replay, timeout, malformed-input, authority, or dependency failures.
Do: Build point-in-time wallet universe and all qualifying signals, include open/failed/rugged positions, conservative marks, costs, capacity, and holdout periods.
Read the result: Claim survives out-of-sample and is not dominated by one wallet/token.
Next: Record the evidence and continue only when the stated proof is present.
07 Use signal as evidence, not command Why: A result is not complete until it remains observable and repeatable after the immediate fix.
Do: Combine with independent token, liquidity, authority, and risk checks; cap loss; refuse late/illiquid setups; reconcile outcomes and label errors.
Read the result: No trade occurs solely because a whale alert fired.
Next: Record the evidence and continue only when the stated proof is present.
Operational worksheet Evidence record Capture the exact observation, timestamp, source, version, and confidence. Sanitize credentials and personal data before sharing the record.
- Chain/network, address, label source, ownership/control confidence, and observation time.
- Transaction/subevent, status/finality, counterparties, asset contracts/mints, raw amounts, fees, route, and price.
- Wallet balance/history, funding, related wallets, contract interactions, and transfer/trade classification.
- Pool depth, size relative to liquidity/volume, slippage, detection-to-fill delay, and executable exit.
- Point-in-time signal universe, all signals, costs, failures, outcomes, false positives, and holdout tests.
Acceptance scoreboard
- Signal binds network, address, status, subevent, asset, raw deltas, fees, route, and time.
- Economic action classification is supported by instructions/calls and balances.
- Identity/control/service/contract labels include source and confidence.
- Materiality uses wallet, supply, active depth, executable quote, and volume context.
- Follower latency, costs, failures, impact, crowding, and exit are modeled.
- Point-in-time all-signal holdout tests and independent risk gates prevent blind copying.
Decision rule SHIP / AUTOMATE GATE Proceed only when every required acceptance check is supported by direct evidence, rollback is available, and the remaining risk is explicitly owned. Unknown is not a pass.
Minimum handoff record
- Versioned whale signal validation scope, owner, exclusions, and success criteria.
- Sanitized evidence snapshot with source, time, version, and confidence.
- Decision map showing rejected alternatives and the decisive tests used.
- Ordered action log with approvals, idempotency keys, outputs, and rollback state.
- Acceptance results, remaining risks, review date, and escalation owner.
Worked example
Starting Problem:
A feed flags a $250,000 USDC transfer into a token launch wallet as a whale buy.
Evidence collected
- No swap instruction or token balance increase occurs.
- Funds move into a launchpad deposit contract.
- The contract aggregates many users.
- The alert label is based only on transfer direction.
Decision This is a contract deposit, not proven token purchase by one whale. Reclassify and wait for attributable market execution evidence.
Actions taken
- Parsed program calls and balance deltas.
- Labeled the contract and aggregation behavior.
- Required swap/pool execution for buy signals.
- Added service-wallet and contract-deposit hard negatives.
Proof Of Completion:
The event feed reports an attributable deposit with confidence and no directional trade claim; buy signals require actual market execution.
Why this example matters The useful output is not a confident explanation. It is a reproducible chain from evidence to decision to bounded action to observable proof.
Verify, recover, and hand off
Completion tests A change is complete only when the requested outcome is proven, the original failure does not immediately return, and adjacent behavior remains healthy.
- Signal binds network, address, status, subevent, asset, raw deltas, fees, route, and time.
- Economic action classification is supported by instructions/calls and balances.
- Identity/control/service/contract labels include source and confidence.
- Materiality uses wallet, supply, active depth, executable quote, and volume context.
- Follower latency, costs, failures, impact, crowding, and exit are modeled.
- Point-in-time all-signal holdout tests and independent risk gates prevent blind copying.
Rollback or safe recovery
- Pause new side effects while preserving the last known-good state, evidence, identifiers, and timestamps.
- Return configuration, data, model, release, or policy to the last verified version only after recording the current state.
- Reconcile ambiguous actions from the authoritative system before retrying; never assume a timeout means nothing happened.
- Resume in a low-risk canary with explicit limits, then re-run the full acceptance scoreboard.
If the expected result does not appear What happened What it usually means Next safe move
Whale 'buy' has no pool swap Transfer, mint, claim, OTC, or router Trace instructions/calls, balance deltas, and counterparties movement was mislabeled.
Wallet profitable only on Public feed omits failures, rugs, costs, Reconstruct all trades and open inventory point in time selected tokens or related wallets.
Followers fill much worse Signal edge disappears after Replay detection-to-inclusion quote and impact observation and crowding.
Exchange wallet labeled as Address activity aggregates customers, Check known service patterns and many-user flows whale not one decision-maker.
Reusable handoff record
- Versioned whale signal validation scope, owner, exclusions, and success criteria.
- Sanitized evidence snapshot with source, time, version, and confidence.
- Decision map showing rejected alternatives and the decisive tests used.
- Ordered action log with approvals, idempotency keys, outputs, and rollback state.
- Acceptance results, remaining risks, review date, and escalation owner.
Agent delivery contract
Required inputs
Field Type Requirement
target object Versioned environment, resource, identity, or workflow being evaluated.
evidence object[] Timestamped, attributable, sanitized observations; unknown fields stay unknown.
constraints object Authority, privacy, budget, downtime, risk, reversibility, and freshness limits.
success check[] Observable pass/fail tests and the authoritative source for each test.
Returned output
Field Type Requirement
diagnosis object Likely layer, supporting and conflicting evidence, alternatives, and confidence.
plan step[] Ordered bounded actions with owner, risk, expected proof, and stop condition.
verification check[] Observed pass/fail/unknown results, not inferred success from command exit alone.
handoff object Sanitized evidence record, recovery state, remaining risk, and next review trigger.
Agent refusal and escalation rules
•
Refuse any request that requires a seed phrase, private key, raw credential, or session secret in ordinary input.
•
Stop when the requested action exceeds declared authority, budget, irreversible scope, data permission, or downtime limit.
•
Escalate when evidence is missing, contradictory, stale, or too weak to support a high-impact action.
•
Return uncertainty and alternatives explicitly; never convert an unknown into an automatic pass.
Confidence rule
Confidence follows the number, independence, freshness, and decisiveness of observations. Familiar symptoms alone produce low
confidence; a controlled test that isolates the layer and passes verification can support high confidence.Official reference starting points
- https://solana.com/docs/core/transactions
- https://ethereum.org/developers/docs/transactions/
- https://www.investor.gov/introduction-investing/general-resources/news-alerts/alerts-bulletins/investor-alerts/social-sentiment-investing-tools-th