SAYLOR Convert a speculative token idea into a precommitted maximum-loss, liquidity, execution, exit, and evidence plan that survives volatility and rejects unverifiable setups.
The result you're building
A trade-risk record that identifies the exact asset and market, verifies authorities and executable liquidity, caps position and total loss, defines invalidation and exits before entry, accounts for all costs, and reconciles realized outcomes honestly.
Use this guide when
- You are considering a highly volatile new or meme token.
- Social pressure or a live stream creates urgency.
- You want a rule-based plan instead of improvising after price moves.
Do not use it as a substitute for
- Treating any checklist, influencer, bot, or on-chain signal as a guarantee of profit or safety.
- Using rent, bills, emergency money, borrowed funds, or money you cannot lose.
Before you change anything
- Collect these items first. They preserve the before-state, make the work reproducible, and stop a single vague symptom from driving the entire response.
- Chain, mint/contract, token program/standard, market/pool/route, and observation time.
- Authorities/admin/proxy/fees/hooks, supply, holder concentration, creator/funder, and provenance.
- Executable entry and exit quotes by size, active liquidity, price impact, transfer/sell test, and route dependence.
- Wallet balance, total risk capital, position cap, fee reserve, entry/invalidation/stop/time exit, profit-taking, and no-rebuy rule.
- Decision quote, submitted/confirmed fills, fees, slippage, failures, final inventory, and post-trade reconciliation.
Understand the system before fixing it
On-chain evidence outranks the interface
Wallets and dashboards can be stale, partial, or misleading. Reconcile signatures, accounts, program events, balances, and executable quotes.
Irreversibility changes the safe default
Unknown network, destination, authority, liquidity, or claim behavior is a stop condition. Use low-value tests and explicit maximum loss.
Market cap is not exit liquidity
Your realizable value depends on active depth, size, route, price impact, transfer behavior, competing sellers, and transaction success.
A stop is an execution plan, not a number
Thin or gapping markets may skip the intended price. Define maximum loss, size, route, time, and what happens if exit fails.
Evidence-to-decision map
| Evidence | Likely layer | First decisive check | What the result means |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price rises but exit quote is poor | Liquidity/impact | Quote full intended exit across routes | Displayed price or market cap is not realizable at size. |
| Buy works, sell fails | Token/route/authority | Simulate small sell and inspect first failing instruction | Transfer restriction, tax/hook, frozen account, route, slippage, compute, or liquidity blocks exit. |
| Top holders look distributed | Holder relationships | Trace creator/funder and linked wallets cautiously | Nominal addresses may share control; attribution remains probabilistic. |
| Bot reports profit, wallet down | Accounting | Reconcile all balances, fills, fees, failures, and inventory | Gross labels omit costs or mark illiquid holdings optimistically. |
| Plan changes after loss | Risk discipline | Compare action to pre-trade record | Position size or exit rule was not truly precommitted. |
Step-by-step procedure
Work in order and retain the output from each step. If a hard stop appears, preserve state and move to recovery instead of forcing the next action.
Step 01 — Set the capital and loss boundary
Why: A precise boundary prevents a plausible fix from solving the wrong problem.
Do: Define total speculative bankroll, per-trade maximum, daily/weekly loss, simultaneous exposure, fee reserve, and prohibited funds. Choose a small size that can go to zero.
Read the result: Maximum economic loss is acceptable before viewing upside.
Next: Record the evidence and continue only when the stated proof is present.
Step 02 — Verify exact asset and market
Why: Symptoms are not enough; a baseline preserves the evidence needed to isolate the failing layer.
Do: Confirm chain, mint/contract, token program/standard, pool/curve, quote asset, decimals, program/contract ownership, and official provenance without trusting symbol/name.
Read the result: Wallet, explorer, quote, and on-chain state refer to the same asset and market.
Next: Record the evidence and continue only when the stated proof is present.
Step 03 — Inspect control and concentration
Why: Inconsistent inputs create false differences and make later comparisons unreliable.
Do: Review mint/freeze/update/admin/proxy/fee/hook/blacklist authorities, supply changes, creator/funder, top holders, LP custody, and disclosed mechanisms. Label unknowns.
Read the result: No critical control is hidden behind a simple score.
Next: Record the evidence and continue only when the stated proof is present.
Step 04 — Prove executable liquidity and sell path
Why: A decisive test reduces trial-and-error and limits unnecessary change.
Do: Quote entry and full exit at size, compare impact/fees/routes, simulate transfer/sell, inspect pool active depth, and use a small round-trip test if consciously authorized.
Read the result: A current bounded route can return the expected quote asset.
Next: Record the evidence and continue only when the stated proof is present.
Step 05 — Write entry, invalidation, and exits
Why: The smallest reversible correction lowers the blast radius while preserving a recovery path.
Do: State entry condition/max price, position size, invalidation evidence, maximum loss, time exit, partial profit plan, trailing rule if any, no-average-down/rebuy policy, and action if route fails.
Read the result: Every action after entry maps to a prewritten rule.
Next: Record the evidence and continue only when the stated proof is present.
Step 06 — Execute and reconcile in real time
Why: The happy path cannot expose replay, timeout, malformed-input, authority, or dependency failures.
Do: Use fresh quotes/blockhash, explicit slippage/priority budget, stable intent IDs, confirmed signatures/fills, and balance checks. Stop duplicate retries until chain state is known.
Read the result: Actual received amount, cost, fee, and inventory are visible after each action.
Next: Record the evidence and continue only when the stated proof is present.
Step 07 — Close and audit
Why: A result is not complete until it remains observable and repeatable after the immediate fix.
Do: Value remaining inventory conservatively using executable quote, calculate realized/unrealized PnL after every cost, compare plan adherence, and record what evidence was predictive versus noise.
Read the result: Wallet equity reconciles and lessons do not depend on survivorship or hindsight.
Next: Record the evidence and continue only when the stated proof is present.
Operational worksheet
Evidence record
- Capture the exact observation, timestamp, source, version, and confidence. Sanitize credentials and personal data before sharing the record.
- Chain, mint/contract, token program/standard, market/pool/route, and observation time.
- Authorities/admin/proxy/fees/hooks, supply, holder concentration, creator/funder, and provenance.
- Executable entry and exit quotes by size, active liquidity, price impact, transfer/sell test, and route dependence.
- Wallet balance, total risk capital, position cap, fee reserve, entry/invalidation/stop/time exit, profit-taking, and no-rebuy rule.
- Decision quote, submitted/confirmed fills, fees, slippage, failures, final inventory, and post-trade reconciliation.
Acceptance scoreboard
- Speculative bankroll, per-trade/daily loss, exposure, fee reserve, and prohibited funds are explicit.
- Chain, asset, market, program/contract, decimals, and provenance match across sources.
- Authorities, token mechanics, concentration, creator/funder, and LP custody are evidenced or unknown.
- Full-size executable exit and small test/simulation support the sell path.
- Entry, invalidation, time, loss, profit, failure, and no-rebuy rules are written before entry.
- Confirmed fills, fees, slippage, failures, inventory, equity, and plan adherence reconcile.
Minimum handoff record
- Versioned meme token entry and exit risk plan scope, owner, exclusions, and success criteria.
- Sanitized evidence snapshot with source, time, version, and confidence.
- Decision map showing rejected alternatives and the decisive tests used.
- Ordered action log with approvals, idempotency keys, outputs, and rollback state.
- Acceptance results, remaining risks, review date, and escalation owner.
Worked example
Evidence collected
- Three percent of market cap is a $3,000 headline value, not a guaranteed exit value.
- Active pool depth is far smaller than $100,000.
- Selling 3% would cause major price impact and invite competing exits.
- Authority and holder relationships remain uncertain.
Decision: Do not equate 3% of supply with $3,000 realizable cash. Size from maximum loss and executable round-trip quotes, likely far below 3%.
Actions taken
- Quoted entry and exit at multiple sizes.
- Inspected active liquidity and token controls.
- Set a small maximum-loss size and fee reserve.
- Wrote invalidation and exit rules before any trade.
Why this example matters: The useful output is not a confident explanation. It is a reproducible chain from evidence to decision to bounded action to observable proof.
Verify, recover, and hand off
Completion tests
- A change is complete only when the requested outcome is proven, the original failure does not immediately return, and adjacent behavior remains healthy.
- Speculative bankroll, per-trade/daily loss, exposure, fee reserve, and prohibited funds are explicit.
- Chain, asset, market, program/contract, decimals, and provenance match across sources.
- Authorities, token mechanics, concentration, creator/funder, and LP custody are evidenced or unknown.
- Full-size executable exit and small test/simulation support the sell path.
- Entry, invalidation, time, loss, profit, failure, and no-rebuy rules are written before entry.
- Confirmed fills, fees, slippage, failures, inventory, equity, and plan adherence reconcile.
Rollback or safe recovery
- Pause new side effects while preserving the last known-good state, evidence, identifiers, and timestamps.
- Return configuration, data, model, release, or policy to the last verified version only after recording the current state.
- Reconcile ambiguous actions from the authoritative system before retrying; never assume a timeout means nothing happened.
- Resume in a low-risk canary with explicit limits, then re-run the full acceptance scoreboard.
If the expected result does not appear
| What happened | What it usually means | Next safe move |
|---|---|---|
| Price rises but exit quote is poor | Displayed price or market cap is not realizable at size. | Quote full intended exit across routes |
| Buy works, sell fails | Transfer restriction, tax/hook, frozen account, route, slippage, compute, or liquidity blocks exit. | Simulate small sell and inspect first failing instruction |
| Top holders look distributed | Nominal addresses may share control; attribution remains probabilistic. | Trace creator/funder and linked wallets cautiously |
| Bot reports profit, wallet down | Gross labels omit costs or mark illiquid holdings optimistically. | Reconcile all balances, fills, fees, failures, and inventory |
Reusable handoff record
- Versioned meme token entry and exit risk plan scope, owner, exclusions, and success criteria.
- Sanitized evidence snapshot with source, time, version, and confidence.
- Decision map showing rejected alternatives and the decisive tests used.
- Ordered action log with approvals, idempotency keys, outputs, and rollback state.
- Acceptance results, remaining risks, review date, and escalation owner.
Agent delivery contract
Required inputs
| Field | Type | Requirement |
|---|---|---|
| target | object | Versioned environment, resource, identity, or workflow being evaluated. |
| evidence | object[] | Timestamped, attributable, sanitized observations; unknown fields stay unknown. |
| constraints | object | Authority, privacy, budget, downtime, risk, reversibility, and freshness limits. |
| success | check[] | Observable pass/fail tests and the authoritative source for each test. |
Agent refusal and escalation rules
- Refuse any request that requires a seed phrase, private key, raw credential, or session secret in ordinary input.
- Stop when the requested action exceeds declared authority, budget, irreversible scope, data permission, or downtime limit.
- Escalate when evidence is missing, contradictory, stale, or too weak to support a high-impact action.
- Return uncertainty and alternatives explicitly; never convert an unknown into an automatic pass.
Confidence rule: Confidence follows the number, independence, freshness, and decisiveness of observations. Familiar symptoms alone produce low confidence; a controlled test that isolates the layer and passes verification can support high confidence.
Official reference starting points